Many seasoned investors know that the commercial real estate market is cyclical. Although, we almost forgot this fact over the last extended period of prosperity.
If you think of the real estate cycle as either a side wave with crests and valleys, or as a clock, peaking at noon and hitting the bottom at 6 p.m., you are likely to do well with your investments in commercial real estate.
They key to making money over the past five cycles has been to predict the upswing. It doesn’t need to be an exact science. One of our clients says that anywhere in the bottom third of the cycle is a good time to invest. That same client also stops investing when they believe we are in the top third of the cycle.
Many clients today feel that some of the best buys that we’ve seen in the bottom of the cycle may be defined as a period during 2009. If you remember back to the uncertainty in the market, and how people were holding onto cash, you will note that the few that spent equity dollars actually received very strong returns. I believe we are still in the bottom third of the cycle, but probably on the way up.
If you are looking to invest in Hawaii commercial real estate, pick the time when you believe we are 12 to 24 months from a strong market, meaning increase in occupancies and strong capital availability, and invest at that point in time on the upswing.